Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University , 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States.
State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco- Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences , 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing100085, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2018 Feb 6;52(3):1208-1215. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.7b04665. Epub 2018 Jan 23.
Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) methodology has previously been developed to assess the intensity of anthropogenic extraction of biomass resources. However, there is limited analysis concerning future trends of HANPP. Here we present four scenarios for global biomass demand and HANPP (the most key component of HANPP) from 2010 to 2050 by incorporating data on expanded historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood material, and fuelwood). The results show that the biomass demand has the lowest value in the equitability world scenario (an egalitarian vision) and the highest value in the security foremost scenario (an isolationist vision). The biomass demand for food and materials increases over time, while fuelwood demand decreases over time. Global HANPP rises to between 8.5 and 10.1 Pg C/yr in 2050 in the four scenarios, 14-35% above its value in 2010, and some 50% of HANPP is calculated to be crop residues, wood residues, and food losses in the future. HANPP in developing regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) increases faster than that in more-developed regions (North America and Europe), due to urbanization, population growth, and increasing income. Decoupling of HANPP and socioeconomic development is also discussed in this work.
人类净初级生产力（HANPP）的方法学先前被开发出来以评估生物质资源的人为提取强度。然而，关于 HANPP 的未来趋势的分析有限。在这里，我们通过纳入扩展的历史驱动因素和细分的生物质需求（食物、木材材料和薪材）数据，呈现了 2010 年至 2050 年全球生物质需求和 HANPP（HANPP 的最关键组成部分）的四个情景。结果表明，在平等主义愿景的公平性世界情景下，生物质需求具有最低的值，而在孤立主义愿景的安全至上情景下，生物质需求具有最高的值。食物和材料的生物质需求随时间增加，而薪材需求随时间减少。在四个情景中，2050 年全球 HANPP 上升到 8.5 到 10.1 Pg C/yr，比 2010 年的值高 14-35%，未来大约 50%的 HANPP 将被计算为作物残余物、木材残余物和食物损失。由于城市化、人口增长和收入增加，发展中地区（亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲）的 HANPP 增长速度快于发达地区（北美和欧洲）。本文还讨论了 HANPP 与社会经济发展的脱钩。
