应用捕获-再捕获法估计中国北京地区肌萎缩侧索硬化症的发病率。

Using the Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Beijing, China.

机构信息

School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China.

Department of Neurology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Neuroepidemiology. 2018;50(1-2):29-34. doi: 10.1159/000486175. Epub 2018 Jan 11.

DOI:10.1159/000486175

PMID:29324454

Abstract

BACKGROUND

To assess the total, gender-related and ageing process-related incidence rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Beijing, China. Determine whether the decreased male to female ratio among postmenopausal age groups.

METHODS

We used the 2-source capture-recapture method to estimate the incidence of ALS in Beijing. The primary and secondary data sources were from diagnostic hospitals and assisted care institutions in the same area from 2010 to 2015.

RESULTS

A total of 562 cases and 283 cases were extracted from 2 data sources, and a total of 962 patients diagnosed with ALS within the 6-year period were estimated (95% CI 883-1041). The average yearly incidence was 0.77/100,000 persons (95% CI 0.71-0.83). The female to male ratio was 1.63. The incidence was associated with age and peaked in the 55-64 year age group. There was no obvious decline in the male:female ratio among postmenopausal age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The total incidence of ALS in Beijing is similar to international reports. The onset of ALS is not merely the result of ageing.

摘要

背景

评估中国北京地区肌萎缩侧索硬化症（ALS）的总发病率、性别相关发病率和与年龄相关的发病率。确定绝经后年龄组中男性与女性比例是否降低。

方法

我们使用双源捕获-再捕获法来估计北京地区 ALS 的发病率。主要和次要数据来源为同一地区 2010 年至 2015 年期间的诊断医院和辅助护理机构。

结果

从两个数据源中分别提取了 562 例和 283 例病例，共估计了 962 例在 6 年内被诊断为 ALS 的患者（95%CI 883-1041）。平均年发病率为 0.77/100,000 人（95%CI 0.71-0.83）。女性与男性的比例为 1.63。发病率与年龄有关，在 55-64 岁年龄组达到高峰。绝经后年龄组中，男性与女性的比例没有明显下降。