a Operations Research, North Carolina State University , Raleigh , NC , USA.
b Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering , North Carolina State University , Raleigh , NC , USA.
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2018 Mar 4;14(3):678-683. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1423152. Epub 2018 Feb 12.
Influenza vaccine composition is reviewed before every flu season because influenza viruses constantly evolve through antigenic changes. To inform vaccine updates, laboratories that contribute to the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System monitor the antigenic phenotypes of circulating viruses all year round. Vaccine strains are selected in anticipation of the upcoming influenza season to allow adequate time for production. A mismatch between vaccine strains and predominant strains in the flu season can significantly reduce vaccine effectiveness. Models for predicting the evolution of influenza based on the relationship of genetic mutations and antigenic characteristics of circulating viruses may inform vaccine strain selection decisions. We review the literature on state-of-the-art tools and prediction methodologies utilized in modeling the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection. We then discuss areas that are open for improvement and need further research.
流感疫苗的组成在每个流感季节之前都会进行审查，因为流感病毒会通过抗原变化不断进化。为了提供疫苗更新信息，为世界卫生组织全球流感监测和应对系统做出贡献的实验室全年监测循环病毒的抗原表型。疫苗株是根据即将到来的流感季节选择的，以确保有足够的时间进行生产。疫苗株与流感季节中主要流行株之间的不匹配会显著降低疫苗的有效性。基于循环病毒的遗传突变和抗原特征之间关系的流感进化预测模型可以为疫苗株选择决策提供信息。我们回顾了用于模拟流感进化的最新工具和预测方法的文献，以提供疫苗株选择的信息。然后，我们讨论了需要改进和进一步研究的领域。
