The Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 9190401 Jerusalem, Israel.
Phys Rev E. 2017 Sep;96(3-1):032306. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.032306. Epub 2017 Sep 5.
We analyze time evolution of statistical distributions of citations to scientific papers published in the same year. While these distributions seem to follow the power-law dependence we find that they are nonstationary and the exponent of the power-law fit decreases with time and does not come to saturation. We attribute the nonstationarity of citation distributions to different longevity of the low-cited and highly cited papers. By measuring citation trajectories of papers we found that citation careers of the low-cited papers come to saturation after 10-15 years while those of the highly cited papers continue to increase indefinitely: The papers that exceed some citation threshold become runaways. Thus, we show that although citation distribution can look as a power-law dependence, it is not scale free and there is a hidden dynamic scale associated with the onset of runaways. We compare our measurements to our recently developed model of citation dynamics based on copying-redirection-triadic closure and find explanations to our empirical observations.
我们分析了同年发表的科学论文被引频次的统计分布的时间演化。虽然这些分布似乎遵循幂律关系,但我们发现它们是非平稳的,幂律拟合的指数随时间减小,且不会达到饱和。我们将引文分布的非平稳性归因于低被引文献和高被引文献的寿命不同。通过测量文献的引文轨迹,我们发现低被引文献的引文生涯在 10-15 年后达到饱和,而高被引文献的引文生涯则无限期地继续增加:超过某些引文阈值的文献成为“逃逸者”。因此,我们表明,尽管引文分布看起来像是幂律关系,但它不是无标度的,并且存在与逃逸者出现相关的隐藏动态标度。我们将我们的测量结果与我们最近基于复制-重定向-三元闭合的引文动力学模型进行了比较,并对我们的经验观察做出了解释。