Ferraz Rosemeire de Olanda, Oliveira-Friestino Jane Kelly, Francisco Priscila Maria Stolses Bergamo
. Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas - Unicamp - Campinas (SP) Brasil.
. Curso de Medicina, Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul - UFFS - Chapecó (SC) Brasil.
J Bras Pneumol. 2017 Jul-Aug;43(4):274-279. doi: 10.1590/S1806-37562016000000235.
To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard) in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012.
This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis.
The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions.
In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.
分析1996年至2012年间巴西所有地理区域的肺炎死亡率（以年龄标准化，采用2010年巴西人口作为标准）的时间趋势。
这是一项生态时间序列研究，分析了巴西统一医疗系统信息技术部门维护的死亡率数据库中的二手数据。采用多项式和连接点回归模型以及相应的95%置信区间进行趋势分析。
南部、东南部和中西部的肺炎死亡率在2000年之前呈下降趋势，随后上升，而北部和东北部在整个研究期间几乎呈上升趋势。除北部外，所有地区肺炎死亡率的年变化百分比均存在差异。中西部在1996年至2000年间年变化百分比下降幅度最大，随后到2005年上升幅度相同。80岁及以上年龄组对所有地区肺炎死亡率的趋势行为影响最大。
总体而言，肺炎死亡率趋势发生逆转，2000年后出现了显著上升。
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