温度驱动的致倦库蚊和白纹伊蚊种群丰度模型（双翅目：蚊科）。

Temperature-driven population abundance model for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae).

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.

出版信息

J Theor Biol. 2018 Apr 14;443:28-38. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024. Epub 2018 Feb 3.

DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024

PMID:29366824

Abstract

We develop a temperature-driven abundance model for West Nile virus (WNV) vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans. Temperature-dependent response functions for mosquito development, mortality, and diapause were formulated based on results from available laboratory and field studies. Numerical results compared to observed mosquito trap counts from 2004-2016 demonstrate the ability of our model to predict the observed trend of the mosquito population over a single season in the Peel Region, Ontario. The model has potential to be used as a real-time mosquito abundance forecasting tool with applications in mosquito control programs.

摘要

我们开发了一个西尼罗河病毒（WNV）媒介物种，库蚊和致倦库蚊的温度驱动丰度模型。根据现有实验室和野外研究的结果，制定了与蚊子发育、死亡和滞育有关的温度响应函数。与 2004-2016 年观察到的蚊子诱捕计数的数值结果进行比较，表明我们的模型能够预测安大略省皮尔地区一个季节内蚊子种群的观察趋势。该模型有可能成为一种实时蚊子丰度预测工具，可应用于蚊子控制计划。