Curtin-Monash Accident Research Centre, GPO Box U1987, Perth WA 6845, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2018 Apr;113:117-124. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.01.013. Epub 2018 Mar 7.
This study examined the effects of distance from alcohol outlets to motor vehicle crashes across the Perth metropolitan area. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken using measures of alcohol- and non-alcohol-related crashes, and their proximity to alcohol outlets, using a geographic information system. Two logistic regression models were developed with the following outcomes: i) crashes including drivers with BAC ≥ 0.05%, and ii) weekend single vehicle night-time crashes, a surrogate measure of alcohol-related crashes. The surrogate measures of non-alcohol-related crashes for these models were all day-time and single vehicle day-time crashes respectively. The major predictors of alcohol-related crashes were number of on-premise outlets and bottleshops in buffer zones up to 2 km, 2 km-5 km, 5 km-10 km and 10 km-20 km from crashes. The distance from the central business district (CBD) and sociodemographic factors were controlled for. The study included 341,467 crashes that occurred between 2005 and 2015. The highest crash incidence rates occurred in the CBD. The statistical models indicated that crashes with a higher number of on-premise outlets in adjacent buffer zones were more likely to be alcohol-related than non-alcohol-related crashes. Crashes with a higher number of on-premise outlets less than 2 km, 2 km-5 km, 5 km-10 km, and 10 km-20 km from the crashes were significantly more likely to be weekend single vehicle night-time crashes than day-time crashes (OR = 1.014; 95% CI:1.002-1.027, OR = 1.022; 95% CI:1.014-1.029, OR = 1.019; 95% CI:1.014-1.024, and OR = 1.017; 95% CI:1.014-1.020 respectively). There was some evidence that crashes with lower number of bottleshops in adjacent buffer zones were more likely to be alcohol-related crashes, although this was not consistent across both models and all buffer zones. When other predictors were controlled for, alcohol-related crashes were more likely to occur further from the CBD, than in the CBD. Recommendations about the timing and location of roadside alcohol testing are made.
本研究考察了从酒精销售点到珀斯大都市区机动车事故的距离的影响。采用地理信息系统，利用与酒精和非酒精相关事故及其与酒精销售点的接近程度的测量值，进行了一项回顾性基于人群的研究。使用以下两种结果开发了两个逻辑回归模型：i）包括血液酒精浓度≥0.05%的驾驶员的事故，以及 ii）周末单辆夜间事故，这是酒精相关事故的替代衡量标准。这些模型的非酒精相关事故的替代衡量标准分别为全天和单辆日间事故。酒精相关事故的主要预测因素是缓冲区中每 2 公里、2-5 公里、5-10 公里和 10-20 公里内的店内和瓶装店数量。控制了距中央商务区（CBD）的距离和社会人口因素。该研究包括 2005 年至 2015 年间发生的 341,467 起事故。CBD 发生的事故发生率最高。统计模型表明，相邻缓冲区中店内数量较多的事故更有可能与酒精相关，而不是非酒精相关的事故。距离事故最近的 2 公里、2-5 公里、5-10 公里和 10-20 公里内的店内数量较高的事故，更有可能是周末单辆夜间事故，而不是日间事故（OR=1.014；95%CI：1.002-1.027，OR=1.022；95%CI：1.014-1.029，OR=1.019；95%CI：1.014-1.024，OR=1.017；95%CI：1.014-1.020）。有一些证据表明，相邻缓冲区中瓶装店数量较少的事故更有可能是酒精相关的事故，但这在两个模型和所有缓冲区中都不一致。控制其他预测因素后，与 CBD 相比，CBD 以外的地区发生酒精相关事故的可能性更高。提出了有关路边酒精测试时间和地点的建议。
