Xiang Pan, Ya Yang, Lin-Han Li, Wan-Ting Cheng, Yu Yang, Xiu-Xia Song, Yi-Biao Zhou, Qing-Wu Jiang
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health University, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi. 2017 Mar 21;29(2):163-168. doi: 10.16250/j.32.1374.2016229.
To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014, so as to provide the reference for formulating effective intervention measures.
Junshan District was selected as a study field in Eastern Dongting Lake area. The method of spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to analyze the change of spatial distribution of infection in Junshan District in 2012 and 2014. The spatial regression model was fitted to detect the risk factors for human infection.
The livestock infection rate in 2013 was lower than that in 2011. The average infection rate of schistosome was reduced to 0.55% in 2014. The spatial autocorrelation existed on the distribution of schistosomiasis in Junshan District in both 2012 and 2014 and 4 high incidence villages were identified. The results of the spatial error model showed that the prevalence of human infection was positively correlated with the infection rate of the livestock and the area of the susceptible environment in 2012. The spatial lag model showed that the prevalence of human schistosomiasis was positively correlated with the area of the susceptible environment, but not with the infection rate of livestock.
The measures involving grazing prohibition and phasing out cattle and sheep are remarkably effective and should continue on the basis of the current spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in this area.
调查2012年和2014年东洞庭湖地区人群感染情况的时空分布及其危险因素，为制定有效的干预措施提供参考。
选取东洞庭湖地区的君山区作为研究现场。应用空间自相关分析方法分析2012年和2014年君山区感染空间分布的变化。拟合空间回归模型以检测人群感染的危险因素。
2013年家畜感染率低于2011年。2014年血吸虫平均感染率降至0.55%。2012年和2014年君山区血吸虫病分布均存在空间自相关，并确定了4个高发村。空间误差模型结果显示，2012年人群感染率与家畜感染率及易感环境面积呈正相关。空间滞后模型显示，人群血吸虫病感染率与易感环境面积呈正相关，但与家畜感染率无关。
禁牧和淘汰牛羊等措施效果显著，应根据该地区目前血吸虫病的空间分布情况继续实施。
