School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Stockholm Business Scool, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Environ Res. 2018 Jul;164:70-84. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.029. Epub 2018 Feb 23.
Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis.
经济发展伴随着环境破坏和能源消耗，这在当今时代变得至关重要。经济、环境和能源之间存在着复杂而综合的相互作用。了解能源-环境-经济模型（3E）及其关键因素的运行机制是解决这一问题的内在部分。在本文中，我们将系统动力学模型和地理信息系统相结合，从时间和空间上分析能源-环境-经济（3E）系统，明确探讨经济、能源和环境的相互作用以及关键影响因素的作用。选择北京市作为案例研究来验证我们的 SD-GIS 模型。探索并比较了替代方案，例如当前、技术、能源和环境方案。模拟结果表明，当前方案不可持续；技术方案适用于经济增长；环境方案为长期稳定保持了平衡的发展路径。根据我们的结果和分析提出了决策见解。
