China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, 12465Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Business School, 1004Aalborg University, Aalborg, DK-9220, Denmark.
Sci Prog. 2022 Jul-Sep;105(3):368504221118231. doi: 10.1177/00368504221118231.
This paper constructs an Economy-Energy-Emissions (3E) System Dynamics Model using the megacity of Beijing, China, as an example, to estimate the effects of different policy scenarios (including three single-policy scenarios and four combined-policy scenarios) on the core variables of Beijing's 3E system from 2021 to 2035. The results suggest two main points. (1) Following the current development trend, the proportion of the GDP represented by the added value of advanced high-precision industries (Gao Jing Jian in Chinese) will only be 43% in 2035, implying a limited role in promoting economic growth. Despite effective control of total energy consumption, fossil energy's share of total consumption will reach 57% by 2035, hindering the process of making the energy consumption structure cleaner and leading to failure to achieve the targeted inflection point in CO emissions by 2025. PM control shows some successful results and will decrease to 19 μ in 2035. However, a gap compared to other world-class cities remains. (2) The implementation of a single policy for either industrial structure optimization, energy structure transformation, or emissions control cannot simultaneously meet the goal of high-quality coordinated development of Beijing's 3E system, whereas the comprehensive implementation of policies in all three dimensions is demonstrably effective.
本文以中国特大城市北京为例，构建了一个经济-能源-排放（3E）系统动力学模型，用以估计从 2021 年至 2035 年不同政策情景（包括三种单一政策情景和四种综合政策情景）对北京 3E 系统核心变量的影响。结果表明了两点主要内容。（1）若延续当前发展趋势，到 2035 年，高精尖产业增加值占 GDP 的比重（Gao Jing Jian 在北京指的是高新技术产业）仅为 43%，对经济增长的带动作用有限。尽管能有效控制能源消费总量，但到 2035 年，化石能源在总消费中的占比仍将达到 57%，这将阻碍清洁能源消费结构的转变进程，导致无法实现 2025 年 CO 排放拐点的目标。PM 控制取得了一些成功，到 2035 年将降至 19μg/m³，但与世界一流城市相比仍存在差距。（2）实施单一的产业结构优化、能源结构转型或排放控制政策，无法同时满足北京 3E 系统高质量协同发展的目标，而全面实施这三个维度的政策显然是有效的。
