Liu X L, Xiao Y L, Tang H Q, Chen B L, Yang L H, Xiao Y L, Lv S J
Hunan Prevention and teatment institute for Occupational diseases, Changsha 410007, China.
Zhonghua Lao Dong Wei Sheng Zhi Ye Bing Za Zhi. 2018 Jan 20;36(1):32-35. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-9391.2018.01.009.
To analyze the status of personnel in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province, China, from 1996 to 2015, to predict staff composition using grey model (GM) (1, 1) , and to provide a scientific basis and reference for optimizing human resource planning of occupational disease prevention and treatment in other provinces and regions and promoting the service capacity of the institutions. The data of the staff in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province, China, from 1996 to 2015 were obtained from the established basic information management system. The descriptive analysis method was used to analyze the dynamic changes in number and composition of the staff and the GM (1, 1) was used to predict the staff composition. The numbers of the staff members in 1996 and 2015 in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province, China were 1591 and 1429, respectively. In the twenty years, the main education level of the staff transformed from "technical secondary school education and non-academic qualifications" to "bachelor degree or above and college degree"; the main major of the staff transformed from "other majors" to "public health and clinical medicine"; the proportion of the staff members without professional titles changed from >1/3 to 5%; and the proportions of the staff members with senior, intermediate, and junior professional titles were steadily rising. GM prediction showed that the proportions of highly educated staff members in 2018 and 2020 would be up to 41.00% and 45.61%, respectively; and the proportions of the staff members with a major in public health in 2018 and 2020 would be up to 44.15% and 46.60%, respectively. The staff in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province, China, in the twenty years have slight changes in staff size and great improvement in staff quality, which is beneficial to sustainable development of the occupational disease prevention and treatment undertakings. The education level and major will be further optimized in the next five years.
分析1996年至2015年中国湖南省职业病防治机构人员状况，运用灰色模型（GM）（1,1）预测人员构成，为其他省、自治区、直辖市优化职业病防治人力资源规划、提升机构服务能力提供科学依据和参考。通过已建立的基本信息管理系统获取1996年至2015年中国湖南省职业病防治机构人员数据，采用描述性分析方法分析人员数量和构成的动态变化，运用GM（1,1）预测人员构成。1996年和2015年中国湖南省职业病防治机构工作人员数量分别为1591人和1429人。二十年间，人员学历结构从“中专及无学历”为主转变为“本科及以上学历和大专学历”为主；人员专业从“其他专业”为主转变为“公共卫生与临床医学”为主；无职称人员比例从＞1/3降至5%；高级职称、中级职称、初级职称人员比例稳步上升。GM预测显示，2018年和2020年高学历人员比例分别可达41.00%和45.61%；2018年和2020年公共卫生专业人员比例分别可达44.15%和46.60%。二十年间，中国湖南省职业病防治机构人员规模略有变化，人员素质有较大提升，有利于职业病防治事业可持续发展，未来五年学历结构和专业将进一步优化。
