Latitudinal patterns in temperature-dependent growth rates of a forest pathogen.

Direct effects of temperature on plant pathogens can be crucial to determine the onset and epidemiology of disease. The pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, the causal agent of the pine wilt disease (PWD), has a wide geographical distribution in Eurasia and East Asia, and local temperatures are considered determinant for the onset of the PWD. However, direct effects of temperature on this pathogen are never considered when forecasting its distribution and impact. In the present study we assessed: 1) at which temperatures is the development of wild populations of the pinewood nematode optimized; 2) if there is niche divergence on different populations from its wide distribution area. For this we studied two populations originated from different latitudes in eastern North America (NA), and used multi-model inference to evaluate the contributions of temperature, diet, and nematode population toward the growth rates of B. xylophilus. Although population origin had some effect on the predictive models, there seems to be niche conservatism, with temperatures of 28-29°C maximizing the growth rates of the pathogen. Thus, the use of the number of days in the summer with temperatures between 25 and 31°C would probably help to improve models forecasting B. xylophilus dispersion and PWD. The present work highlight the importance of considering adaptations to temperatures in forest pathogens with large geographical distributions, when building models forecasting the impact of climate on these organisms.