Department of Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Am Econ Rev. 2017 Jun;107(6):1611-37. doi: 10.1257/aer.20141467.
This paper introduces a new IV strategy based on IVF (in vitro fertilization) induced fertility variation among childless women to estimate the causal effect of having children on their career. For this purpose, we use administrative data on IVF treated women in Denmark. Because observed chances of IVF success do not depend on labor market histories, IVF treatment success provides a plausible instrument for childbearing. Our IV estimates indicate that fertility effects on earnings are: (i) negative, large, and long-lasting; (ii) driven by fertility effects on hourly earnings and not so much on labor supply; and (iii) much stronger at the extensive margin than at the intensive margin.
本文提出了一种基于体外受精（IVF）诱导不孕女性生育能力变化的新 IV 策略，以估计生育对女性职业的因果效应。为此，我们使用了丹麦接受 IVF 治疗的女性的行政数据。由于观察到的 IVF 成功率并不取决于劳动力市场历史，因此 IVF 治疗成功为生育提供了一个合理的工具。我们的 IV 估计表明，生育对收入的影响为：（i）负面的、大的和持久的；（ii）由生育对小时收入的影响驱动，而不是由劳动力供应的影响驱动；（iii）在广泛的边际上比在密集的边际上要强得多。
