Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Civil Engineering, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Inj Prev. 2019 Feb;25(1):36-46. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042599. Epub 2018 Mar 21.
Motor vehicle overloading is correlated with the possibility of road crash occurrence and severity. Although overloading of motor vehicles is pervasive in developing nations, few empirical analyses have been performed on factors that might influence the occurrence of overloading. This study aims to address this shortcoming by seeking evidence from several years of crash data from Guangdong province, China.
Data on overloading and other factors are extracted for crash-involved vehicles from traffic crash records for 2006-2010 provided by the Traffic Management Bureau in Guangdong province. Logistic regression is applied to identify risk factors for overloading in crash-involved vehicles and within these crashes to identify factors contributing to greater crash severity. Driver, vehicle, road and environmental characteristics and violation types are considered in the regression models. In addition to the basic logistic models, association analysis is employed to identify the potential interactions among different risk factors during fitting the logistic models of overloading and severity.
Crash-involved vehicles driven by males from rural households and in an unsafe condition are more likely to be overloaded and to be involved in higher severity overloaded vehicle crashes. If overloaded vehicles speed, the risk of severe traffic crash casualties increases. Young drivers (aged under 25 years) in mountainous areas are more likely to be involved in higher severity overloaded vehicle crashes.
This study identifies several factors associated with overloading in crash-involved vehicles and with higher severity overloading crashes and provides an important reference for future research on those specific risk factors.
机动车超载与道路碰撞发生的可能性及其严重程度相关。尽管在发展中国家，机动车超载普遍存在，但很少有实证分析涉及可能影响超载发生的因素。本研究旨在通过从中国广东省几年的碰撞数据中寻找证据来弥补这一不足。
从广东省交通管理局提供的 2006-2010 年交通碰撞记录中提取超载和其他因素的数据，用于涉及碰撞的车辆。应用逻辑回归识别涉及碰撞的车辆中超载的风险因素，并在这些碰撞中识别导致更严重碰撞严重程度的因素。在回归模型中考虑了驾驶员、车辆、道路和环境特征以及违规类型。除了基本的逻辑模型外，关联分析还用于在拟合超载和严重程度的逻辑模型时识别不同风险因素之间的潜在相互作用。
来自农村家庭的男性驾驶员驾驶的处于不安全状态的碰撞车辆更有可能超载，并且更有可能涉及更严重的超载车辆碰撞。如果超载车辆超速行驶，严重交通事故伤亡的风险就会增加。山区的年轻驾驶员（25 岁以下）更有可能涉及更严重的超载车辆碰撞。
本研究确定了与碰撞车辆超载以及更严重的超载车辆碰撞相关的几个因素，并为未来对这些特定风险因素的研究提供了重要参考。
