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生活在边缘:极端结果及其邻居如何驱动风险选择。

Living near the edge: How extreme outcomes and their neighbors drive risky choice.

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Warwick.

Department of Psychology, Boston College.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2018 Dec;147(12):1905-1918. doi: 10.1037/xge0000414. Epub 2018 Mar 22.

Abstract

Extreme stimuli are often more salient in perception and memory than moderate stimuli. In risky choice, when people learn the odds and outcomes from experience, the extreme outcomes (best and worst) also stand out. This additional salience leads to more risk-seeking for relative gains than for relative losses-the opposite of what people do when queried in terms of explicit probabilities. Previous research has suggested that this pattern arises because the most extreme experienced outcomes are more prominent in memory. An important open question, however, is what makes these extreme outcomes more prominent? Here we assess whether extreme outcomes stand out because they fall at the edges of the experienced outcome distributions or because they are distinct from other outcomes. Across four experiments, proximity to the edge determined what was treated as extreme: Outcomes at or near the edge of the outcome distribution were both better remembered and more heavily weighted in choice. This prominence did not depend on two metrics of distinctiveness: lower frequency or distance from other outcomes. This finding adds to evidence from other domains that the values at the edges of a distribution have a special role. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

极端刺激在感知和记忆中通常比中等刺激更为突出。在风险选择中,当人们通过经验了解概率和结果时,极端结果(最好和最坏)也会突出。这种额外的显著性导致人们在追求相对收益时比追求相对损失时更倾向于冒险——这与人们在明确概率方面的表现相反。先前的研究表明,这种模式的出现是因为最极端的经验结果在记忆中更为突出。然而,一个重要的悬而未决的问题是,是什么使这些极端结果更加突出?在这里,我们评估极端结果是否因为它们处于经验结果分布的边缘而突出,或者因为它们与其他结果不同。在四项实验中,接近边缘决定了什么是极端的:处于或接近结果分布边缘的结果都被更好地记住,并在选择中被更重地加权。这种突出性并不取决于两个独特性指标:频率较低或与其他结果的距离较远。这一发现增加了来自其他领域的证据,即分布边缘的值具有特殊作用。(APA,保留所有权利)。

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