Increasing biomass demand enlarges negative forest nutrient budget areas in wood export regions.

Energy production from biomass is one of the adopted strategies in different European countries to limit global warming to within the 1.5-2° targets after the 2015 UN climate agreement. This will motivate enhanced forest harvest rates and whole tree harvest to supply the increasing biomass demand. Negative nutrient budgets for certain timberland areas where geogenic nutrient supply cannot cope with harvesting rates will be one consequence. A spatially explicit analysis for a U.S. timberland area of 33,570 km reveals that for a minimum nutrient loss and supply scenario, negative nutrient budgets occur in 17, 20, 16, and almost 94% of the studied areas for Ca, K, Mg, and P, respectively. For a maximum nutrient loss (considering intensive harvesting) and supply assumptions, the affected areas increase to 50, 57, 45 and 96% for Ca, K, Mg, and P, respectively. In general, atmospheric nutrient deposition is of minor importance for the high weathering supply cases. Increasing global woody biomass demand may cause additional pressure on forested ecosystems, enlarging negative nutrient budget areas. If woody biomass demand rises, strategies to counterbalance nutrient gaps might be needed, for example, by preparing harvested areas with rock products, designed to replenish growth limiting nutrients, and/or implementing forest management strategies to minimize nutrient export.