Mazzuco Stefano, Scarpa Bruno, Zanotto Lucia
a University of Padova.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2018 Jul;72(2):191-200. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1439519. Epub 2018 Mar 29.
A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman-Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman-Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture 'accident humps').
提出了一种基于混合分布函数的新死亡率模型。我们将半正态分布与偏态正态分布的一种推广形式进行混合。结果,我们得到了一个六参数分布函数,它能很好地拟合各种死亡率模式。该混合模型被应用于几个死亡率数据时间表,并与西勒(五参数)模型和赫利格曼 - 波拉德(八参数)模型进行比较。我们提出的模型在赫利格曼 - 波拉德模型(能确保与数据良好拟合但常常参数过多)和西勒模型(更简洁但无法捕捉“事故峰”)之间提供了一个便利的折衷方案。