Voulgaraki Anastasia, Wei Rong, Kedem Benjamin
Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, U.S.A.; National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, 20782, U.S.A.
Stat Med. 2015 May 20;34(11):1940-52. doi: 10.1002/sim.6385. Epub 2014 Dec 10.
In US states with small subpopulations, the observed mortality rates are often zero, particularly among young ages. Because in life tables, death rates are reported mostly on a log scale, zero mortality rates are problematic. To overcome the observed zero death rates problem, appropriate probability models are used. Using these models, observed zero mortality rates are replaced by the corresponding expected values. This enables logarithmic transformations and, in some cases, the fitting of the eight-parameter Heligman-Pollard model to produce mortality estimates for ages 0-130 years, a procedure illustrated in terms of mortality data from several states.
在美国人口较少的州,观察到的死亡率往往为零,尤其是在年轻人中。因为在生命表中,死亡率大多以对数尺度报告,零死亡率存在问题。为了克服观察到的零死亡率问题,使用了适当的概率模型。使用这些模型,观察到的零死亡率被相应的期望值所取代。这使得可以进行对数变换,并且在某些情况下,可以拟合八参数Heligman-Pollard模型以生成0至130岁的死亡率估计值,这一过程通过几个州的死亡率数据进行了说明。