Population, Policy and Practice, UCL Great Ormond St. Institute of Child Health, London, UK.
Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, Kings College London, London, UK.
Arch Dis Child. 2018 May;103(5):474-479. doi: 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184. Epub 2018 Mar 28.
The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement.
We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented.
UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.
英国儿童生存倒计时旨在跟踪英国儿童死亡率的近期趋势，并提出改进建议。
我们使用世界卫生组织（WHO）全球死亡率数据库中的数据，计算了英国和 15 个较富裕国家（欧盟 15 国）0-19 岁儿童在 1970 年至 2014 年期间的死亡率。我们使用泊松回归模型评估了明显差异的显著性。我们将模型系数外推以估计英国和欧盟 15 国在 2030 年之前的未来差距。我们提出了目标和中间指标，以跟踪英国的死亡率，与联合国可持续发展目标保持一致。
英国婴儿死亡率继续处于欧盟 15 国死亡率最差的十分之一，1-4 岁儿童死亡率处于最差的四分之一。自 1990 年以来，英国的总死亡率年降幅明显低于欧盟 15 国，婴儿、新生儿后期和 1-4 岁儿童的死亡率也是如此。如果当前趋势持续下去，到 2030 年，英国婴儿死亡率和 1-4 岁儿童死亡率可能分别为欧盟 15 国中位数死亡率的 180%和 145%。英国 1-4 岁和 15-19 岁儿童的非传染性疾病（NCD）死亡率仍处于最差的四分之一。英国的伤害死亡率仍处于最佳四分之一。本文提出了一个英国儿童生存和健康目标和指标框架。
10 岁以下儿童的英国死亡率继续与欧盟 15 国中位数脱轨，英国的 NCD 死亡率仍然很差。我们提出了一系列目标，以改善 2030 年英国儿童的生存状况，并建立了一个年度倒计时机制，以监测实现这些目标的进展情况。
