Sun Q H, Wang W T, Wang Y W, Li T T
National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Apr 6;52(4):430-435. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.04.018.
To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s) ) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95% 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95% 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.
为估算中国广州未来寒潮所致的额外死亡率。我们收集了广州2009 - 2013年的死亡率数据和气象数据，用广义线性模型（GLM模型）计算寒潮天数与非意外死亡率之间的关联。然后我们用5个全球气候模型（GCMs）和2种代表性浓度路径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）预测未来的日平均气温（2020 - 2039年（2020年代）、2050 - 2069年（2050年代）、2080 - 2099年（2080年代））以确定寒潮天数。基期为20世纪80年代（1980 - 1999年）。最后，根据非寒潮日的日均死亡人数、暴露 - 反应关系和每年的寒潮天数，计算出20世纪80年代、2020年代、2050年代和2080年代每年与寒潮相关的额外死亡人数。2009年至2013年广州非意外死亡率的日均平均值为96，日平均气温平均值为22.0℃。寒潮天数与非意外死亡率增加3.3%（95%置信区间0.4% - 6.2%）相关。在20世纪80年代，每年与寒潮相关的死亡人数为34例（95%置信区间4 - 64例）。在RCP4.5情景下，2020年代，该数字将增加0 - 10例；2050年代，将增加1 - 9例；2080年代，将增加1 - 9例。在RCP8.5情景下，2020年代，该数字将增加0 - 9例；2050年代，将增加1 - 6例；2080年代，将增加0 - 11例。在气候变化下，广州与寒潮相关的非意外死亡人数未来将会增加。
