1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2018 May/Jun;133(3):274-286. doi: 10.1177/0033354917751129. Epub 2018 Apr 15.
Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances.
We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases.
We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly).
The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.
尽管餐馆食源性疾病暴发时有发生，并成为新闻焦点，但餐馆可能并未意识到暴发的成本。我们在不同情况下对此进行了估算。
我们开发了一个计算模拟模型；场景变化包括暴发规模（5 至 250 人受影响）、病原体（n=15）、餐饮类型（快餐店、休闲快餐、休闲餐厅和高档餐厅）、收入损失（即每例疾病损失的餐数）、诉讼和法律费用、罚款以及保险费增加。
我们估计，对于快餐店而言，单次食源性疾病暴发的成本范围为 3968 美元至 190 万美元；对于休闲快餐餐厅而言，成本范围为 6330 美元至 210 万美元；对于休闲餐厅而言，成本范围为 8030 美元至 220 万美元；对于高档餐厅而言，成本范围为 8273 美元至 260 万美元，从 5 人暴发且无收入损失、诉讼、法律费用或罚款，到 250 人暴发且收入损失高（每例疾病损失 100 餐）、诉讼和法律费用（1656569 美元）以及罚款（10 万美元）高的情况。这一成本相当于餐厅年营销成本的 10%至 5790%，以及年利润和收入的 0.3%至 101%。最大的成本驱动因素是诉讼和法律费用、暴发规模以及收入损失。病原体类型最多可使成本相差 33.7 万美元，即蜡样芽胞杆菌暴发（成本最低）与李斯特菌暴发（成本最高）之间的差异。
餐馆单次食源性疾病暴发的成本可能相当大，超过了预防和控制措施的典型成本。我们的研究可以帮助决策者确定投资，并激励餐厅环境中感染控制措施的研究。
