Xie Xiao Ping, Chen Zhi Cong, Wang Fang, Bai Mao Wei, Xu Wen Yang
College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University/Shandong Key Laboratory of Nansi Lake Wetland Ecological and Environmental Protection, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2017 Oct;28(10):3369-3377. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201710.016.
Taihu Lake basin was selected as the study site. Based on the landscape data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the Markov and CLUE-S models were used to simulate the landscape types with different scenarios in 2030, and landscape ecological risk index was constructed. The shift of gravity center and spatial statistics were used to reveal landscape ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin with temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that the ecological risk mainly was at medium and low levels in Taihu Lake basin, and the higher ecological risk areas were mainly distributed at the Taihu Lake area during 2000 to 2015, and the low ecological risk was transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed areas in the northern part of Taihu Lake area. Spatial analysis showed that landscape ecological risk had negative correlation with natural factors, which was weakened gradually, while the correlation with socioeconomic factors trended to become stronger, with human disturbance affecting the landscape ecological risk significantly. The impact of socioeconomic factors on landscape ecological risks differed in different urbanization stages. In the developing area, with the economic development, the landscape was increasingly fragmented and the ecological risk was correspondingly increased. While in the developed area, with the further development of the economy, the aggregation index was increased, and fragmentation and separation indexes were decreased, ecological construction was restored, and the landscape ecological risk began to decline. CLUE-S model simulation showed that the ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin would be reduced in future, mainly on the low and relatively low levels. Taihu Lake area, both in history and the future, is a high ecological risk zone, and its management and protection should be strengthened.
选取太湖流域作为研究区域。基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年的景观数据，运用马尔可夫模型和CLUE - S模型对2030年不同情景下的景观类型进行模拟，并构建景观生态风险指数。利用重心转移和空间统计方法揭示太湖流域景观生态风险的时空特征。结果表明，太湖流域生态风险主要处于中低水平，2000 - 2015年期间较高生态风险区域主要分布在太湖湖区，低生态风险区域从太湖西南部和南部转移至太湖湖区北部的发达地区。空间分析表明，景观生态风险与自然因素呈负相关且这种相关性逐渐减弱，而与社会经济因素的相关性趋于增强，人类干扰对景观生态风险影响显著。社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响在不同城市化阶段有所不同。在发展中地区，随着经济发展，景观日益破碎化，生态风险相应增加。而在发达地区，随着经济进一步发展，聚集指数增加，破碎化和分离指数降低，生态建设得到恢复，景观生态风险开始下降。CLUE - S模型模拟显示，未来太湖流域生态风险将降低，主要处于低和较低水平。太湖湖区无论在历史上还是未来都是高生态风险区，应加强对其管理和保护。
