[The prognostic selection of subjects with neurological manifestations of lumbar osteochondrosis during mass prophylactic examinations of the population (screening)].

Several types of tabulated and computerized screening systems have been developed for the selection of subjects at high risk of the development or a relapse within 1-3 years of marked lumbosacral pain involving a temporary disability. The systems are intended to be used during wide-scale prophylactic medical examinations but may also be employed on an individual basis. Some of the proposed systems are based on a self-interview (7-9 questions), others take into consideration objective neurological findings. The authors present a simple calculation table to assess the probability of a relapse of vertebrogenic lumbosacral pain within 12 months. The prognostic coefficients were calculated with the help of modified Bayes' method.