Tsouvelas G, Konstantakopoulos G, Vakirtzis A, Giotakos O, Papaslanis T, Kontaxakis V
Department of Psychology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
First Department of Psychiatry, University of Athens, Eginition Hospital, Αthens, Greece.
Psychiatriki. 2018 Jan-Mar;29(1):19-24. doi: 10.22365/jpsych.2018.291.19.
The link between poverty, unemployment and economic downturns and increases in crime rates has long been the subject of social science study. However, the relationships between these phenomena has not been studied sufficiently and through time in most European countries that suffered, or, like Greece, are still suffering the recent financial crisis. We examined if the recent financial crisis in Greece has coincided with an increase in crime, analyzing crime rates since the start of the financial crisis and over an extensive time period (7 years). Crime statistics were taken from the Greek Police. Repeated measures analyses of variance were performed to reveal potential differences in criminality for the years 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014. There was a significant increase in global criminality rate per 100,000 residents (Wilks' Lambda=0.32, F (3,11)=7.93, p=0.004). There was a significant increase in illegal gun possession (Wilks' Lambda=0.16, F (3,11)=18.68, p=0.001), fraud (Wilks' Lambda=0.10, F (3,11)=32.35, p=0.001), extortion (Wilks' Lambda=0.38, F (3,11)=4.45, p=0.040), and beggary (Wilks' Lambda=0.33, F (3,11)=6.22, p=0.014). A reversed U shape was found for homicides, thefts and robberies, with rates peaking in 2010 and 2012 before dropping off in 2014. Narcotics and sexual exploitation crime rates remained unchanged. Surprisingly, the incidence of rape decreased (Wilks' Lambda=0.42, F (3,11)=5.14, p=0.018). Our results are in agreement with the results of previous broader studies as well as with criminological theories according to which in times of economic stress an increase in both property crimes and violent crimes is expected. As predicted, an increase in financial crime was observed (e.g. fraud and extortions) as well as petty crime related to financial hardship like beggary. Concerns regarding the escalation of white-collar crimes in times of economic downturns that have been raised in the literature warrant further investigation.
贫困、失业与经济衰退和犯罪率上升之间的联系长期以来一直是社会科学研究的主题。然而,在大多数遭受过近期金融危机(如希腊仍在遭受危机)的欧洲国家,这些现象之间的关系在时间维度上尚未得到充分研究。我们通过分析自金融危机开始以来长达7年的犯罪率,来研究希腊近期的金融危机是否与犯罪率上升同时发生。犯罪统计数据取自希腊警方。我们进行了重复测量方差分析,以揭示2008年、2010年、2012年和2014年犯罪行为的潜在差异。每10万居民的总体犯罪率显著上升(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.32,F(3,11)=7.93,p=0.004)。非法持有枪支(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.16,F(3,11)=18.68,p=0.001)、欺诈(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.10,F(3,11)=32.35,p=0.001)、敲诈勒索(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.38,F(3,11)=4.45,p=0.040)和乞讨(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.33,F(3,11)=6.22,p=0.014)均显著增加。杀人、盗窃和抢劫呈现倒U形,犯罪率在2010年和2012年达到峰值,随后在2014年下降。毒品犯罪和性剥削犯罪率保持不变。令人惊讶的是,强奸发生率下降了(威尔克斯Lambda值=0.42,F(3,11)=5.14,p=0.018)。我们的结果与之前更广泛研究的结果以及犯罪学理论一致,根据这些理论,在经济压力时期,财产犯罪和暴力犯罪预计都会增加。正如预测的那样,我们观察到金融犯罪(如欺诈和敲诈勒索)以及与经济困难相关的轻微犯罪(如乞讨)有所增加。文献中提出的关于经济衰退时期白领犯罪升级的担忧值得进一步调查。