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季节性消费下的成长与学习:来自坦桑尼亚的长期证据。

Growing and Learning When Consumption Is Seasonal: Long-Term Evidence From Tanzania.

机构信息

World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA.

Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, 109 Parrington Hall, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.

出版信息

Demography. 2018 Jun;55(3):1091-1118. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0669-4.

Abstract

This article shows that the seasonality of food consumption during childhood, conditional on average consumption, affects long-run human capital development. We develop a model that distinguishes differences in average consumption levels, seasonal fluctuations, and idiosyncratic shocks, and estimate the model using panel data from early 1990s Tanzania. We then test whether the mean and seasonality of a child's consumption profile affect height and educational attainment in 2010. Results show that the negative effects of greater seasonality are 30 % to 60 % of the magnitudes of the positive effects of greater average consumption. Put differently, children expected to have identical human capital based on annualized consumption measures will have substantially different outcomes if one child's consumption is more seasonal. We discuss implications for measurement and policy.

摘要

本文表明,儿童时期的食物消费季节性(基于平均消费水平)会影响长期人力资本发展。我们构建了一个模型,该模型区分了平均消费水平、季节性波动和特质性冲击的差异,并使用 20 世纪 90 年代初坦桑尼亚的面板数据进行了估计。然后,我们检验了儿童消费模式的均值和季节性是否会影响 2010 年的身高和教育程度。结果表明,更大季节性的负面影响是更大平均消费水平的积极影响的 30%至 60%。换句话说,如果一个孩子的消费更具季节性,那么根据年化消费措施预计具有相同人力资本的孩子的结果会有很大差异。我们讨论了这种影响对衡量和政策的意义。

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