College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of The Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Sep;24(9):4095-4106. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14327. Epub 2018 Jun 12.
Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.
气候变化对生态系统有着深远的影响。最近，人们试图量化这些影响，主要集中在衡量对气候变化的暴露程度上，但在很大程度上忽略了生态系统的抵抗力和恢复力，而这也可能影响脆弱性的结果。在本研究中，通过同时在高空间分辨率（0.05°）上整合暴露、敏感性和恢复力，评估了全球陆地生态系统对短期气候变率的相对脆弱性。结果表明，脆弱区域目前主要分布在平原。生态系统对气候变化的响应各不相同，沙漠和干旱疏林灌丛是最脆弱的生物群系。全球脆弱性模式主要由暴露决定，而生态系统敏感性和恢复力可能会在局部尺度上加剧或减轻外部气候压力；暴露与敏感性之间存在高度显著的负相关关系。在全球范围内，61.31%的陆地植被区有能力减轻气候变化的影响，这些地区集中在极地、北方森林、热带雨林和原始森林。根据当前的敏感性和恢复力条件，未来脆弱区域预计将在高北半球纬度地区发展。研究结果表明，整合脆弱性的三个方面（暴露、敏感性和恢复力）可能提供更全面和空间明确的适应策略，以减轻气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响。
