Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, 13083-886, Brazil.
Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, 33124, U.S.A.
Conserv Biol. 2020 Apr;34(2):427-437. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13405. Epub 2019 Oct 1.
Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km ) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km ), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.
巴西拥有最大面积的受保护区域（PAs）内的热带生态系统，这些区域庇护着生物多样性并支持着传统的人类群体。我们通过将气候变化危险指标与 PA 弹性（大小、原生植被覆盖和气候驱动植被转变的可能性）指标相结合，评估了 993 个巴西陆地和沿海海洋保护区对气候变化的脆弱性。这种指标的结合可以识别广泛的气候变化适应途径。有 17 个保护区（20611 公里）高度脆弱，主要位于大西洋森林（7 个）、塞拉多（6 个）和亚马逊（4 个）。258 个保护区（756569 公里）主要位于亚马逊地区，中度脆弱。在亚马逊和西部塞拉多，预计的严重气候变化和气候驱动的植被转变的可能性导致脆弱性上升，尽管保护区的保护状况普遍良好。80%以上的高或中度脆弱性保护区由土著人口管理。因此，除了对生物多样性的潜在风险外，居住在这些保护区的人们的传统知识和生计可能受到威胁。在至少 870 个保护区，主要在大西洋森林和亚马逊地区，由于气候变化危险低、弹性状态高或两者兼而有之，适应可能会在没有或几乎没有干预的情况下发生。鉴于其弹性状态较低，在大西洋森林、塞拉多和亚马逊地区的至少 20 个保护区应针对更强的干预措施（例如，改善生态连通性）进行目标定位。尽管这是首次尝试将巴西保护区的脆弱性和适应联系起来，但我们建议将一些被确定为高度或中度脆弱的保护区作为优先考虑，以便在不久的将来测试潜在的适应策略。
