Time-varying MVAR algorithms for directed connectivity analysis: Critical comparison in simulations and benchmark EEG data.

Human brain function depends on directed interactions between multiple areas that evolve in the subsecond range. Time-varying multivariate autoregressive (tvMVAR) modeling has been proposed as a way to help quantify directed functional connectivity strengths with high temporal resolution. While several tvMVAR approaches are currently available, there is a lack of unbiased systematic comparative analyses of their performance and of their sensitivity to parameter choices. Here, we critically compare four recursive tvMVAR algorithms and assess their performance while systematically varying adaptation coefficients, model order, and signal sampling rate. We also compared two ways of exploiting repeated observations: single-trial modeling followed by averaging, and multi-trial modeling where one tvMVAR model is fitted across all trials. Results from numerical simulations and from benchmark EEG recordings showed that: i) across a broad range of model orders all algorithms correctly reproduced patterns of interactions; ii) signal downsampling degraded connectivity estimation accuracy for most algorithms, although in some cases downsampling was shown to reduce variability in the estimates by lowering the number of parameters in the model; iii) single-trial modeling followed by averaging showed optimal performance with larger adaptation coefficients than previously suggested, and showed slower adaptation speeds than multi-trial modeling. Overall, our findings identify strengths and weaknesses of existing tvMVAR approaches and provide practical recommendations for their application to modeling dynamic directed interactions from electrophysiological signals.