Predicting perceived level of disturbance of visitors due to crowding in protected areas.

Managing the disturbance of visitors due to crowding is an important management task in protected areas with high use levels. To achieve this, managers need to know how the use level affects the perceived disturbance due to crowding. Here we present a method to predict the level of disturbance as a function of use level measured by number of visitors. In contrast to the visual approach where subjects are asked to evaluate acceptability of use levels from manipulated images of scenery, our approach uses data gathered from actual experiences: actual (measured) use levels and concurrent on-site data on levels of disturbance experienced by visitors. Using the example of Nature Park Telašćica, we show how these data can be acquired with limited resources (a smart-phone and short, time-stamped questionnaires), and demonstrate the subsequent analysis and model fitting. The resulting model estimates the probability that a visitor experiencing a given use level will report certain level of disturbance. We suggest a way of using the probability density functions to define an inherent limit of acceptable disturbance (LAD) due to crowding; the LAD can also be set to a desired value by management. Regardless of the definition, LAD can be used to determine the maximum acceptable use level as dictated by crowding considerations. The method gives predictions consistent with previous literature and can be used even when data are collected at low use levels.