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利用百度搜索指数预测中国艾滋病的发病率。

Using the Baidu Search Index to Predict the Incidence of HIV/AIDS in China.

机构信息

School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China.

The Johns Hopkins University-Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies, Nanjing, 210093, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2018 Jun 13;8(1):9038. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-27413-1.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-27413-1
PMID:29899360
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5998029/
Abstract

Based on a panel of 30 provinces and a timeframe from January 2009 to December 2013, we estimate the association between monthly human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) incidence and the relevant Internet search query volumes in Baidu, the most widely used search engine among the Chinese. The pooled mean group (PMG) model show that the Baidu search index (BSI) positively predicts the increase in HIV/AIDS incidence, with a 1% increase in BSI associated with a 2.1% increase in HIV/AIDS incidence on average. This study proposes a promising method to estimate and forecast the incidence of HIV/AIDS, a type of infectious disease that is culturally sensitive and highly unevenly distributed in China; the method can be taken as a complement to a traditional HIV/AIDS surveillance system.

摘要

基于 30 个省份的面板数据和 2009 年 1 月至 2013 年 12 月的时间范围，我们估计了每月人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征（HIV/AIDS）发病率与百度（中国最广泛使用的搜索引擎）相关搜索查询量之间的关联。汇总平均组（PMG）模型显示，百度搜索指数（BSI）正向预测 HIV/AIDS 发病率的增加，BSI 每增加 1%，HIV/AIDS 发病率平均增加 2.1%。本研究提出了一种估计和预测 HIV/AIDS（一种在中国文化上敏感且分布极不均匀的传染病）发病率的有前途的方法；该方法可作为传统 HIV/AIDS 监测系统的补充。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/7b3ffd1aae76/41598_2018_27413_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/f73afd44cd67/41598_2018_27413_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/78c63fd7ca0a/41598_2018_27413_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/3c359b38526b/41598_2018_27413_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/596c10f4bcfb/41598_2018_27413_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/2b7f57e3fc3d/41598_2018_27413_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/7b3ffd1aae76/41598_2018_27413_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/f73afd44cd67/41598_2018_27413_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/78c63fd7ca0a/41598_2018_27413_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/3c359b38526b/41598_2018_27413_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/596c10f4bcfb/41598_2018_27413_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/2b7f57e3fc3d/41598_2018_27413_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7a09/5998029/7b3ffd1aae76/41598_2018_27413_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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