Curran J W, Morgan W M, Hardy A M, Jaffe H W, Darrow W W, Dowdle W R
Science. 1985 Sep 27;229(4720):1352-7. doi: 10.1126/science.2994217.
The reported incidence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) continues to increase in countries throughout the world. On the basis of a polynomial model for extrapolation, the cumulative number of cases diagnosed and reported since 1981 in the United States is expected to double during the next year with over 12,000 additional cases projected to be diagnosed by July 1986. The annual incidence rates for single (never-married) men in Manhattan and San Francisco, intravenous drug users in New York City and New Jersey, and persons with hemophilia A ranged from 261 to 350 per 100,000 population during 1984. For single men aged 25 to 44 years in Manhattan and San Francisco, AIDS was the leading cause of premature mortality in 1984 as measured by years of potential life lost. Infection with HTLV-III/LAV is considerably more common than reported AIDS in high-risk populations and can persist at least for several years, so the presence of specific antibody should be considered presumptive evidence of current infection. The screening of donated blood and plasma for antibody to HTLV-III/LAV and use of safer clotting factor concentrates should greatly reduce HTLV-III/LAV transmission through blood and blood products. Most HTLV-III/LAV infections occur through sexual transmission, use of contaminated needles, and as a result of infected mothers passing the virus to newborns. Continued research commitment is needed to develop an HTLV-III/LAV vaccine and therapy for this infection. In the interim, widespread community efforts are needed to minimize transmission.
在世界各国，获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）的报告发病率持续上升。根据用于外推的多项式模型，预计美国自1981年以来诊断和报告的病例累计数量在明年将翻倍，预计到1986年7月还会有超过12,000例新增病例被诊断出来。1984年，曼哈顿和旧金山的单身（从未结婚）男性、纽约市和新泽西州的静脉注射吸毒者以及甲型血友病患者的年发病率为每10万人261至350例。对于曼哈顿和旧金山25至44岁的单身男性，按潜在寿命损失年数衡量，艾滋病是1984年过早死亡的主要原因。在高危人群中，感染人嗜T淋巴细胞病毒III型/淋巴腺病相关病毒（HTLV-III/LAV）比报告的艾滋病更为常见，并且至少可以持续数年，因此特定抗体的存在应被视为当前感染的推定证据。对捐献的血液和血浆进行HTLV-III/LAV抗体筛查以及使用更安全的凝血因子浓缩物应能大大减少HTLV-III/LAV通过血液和血液制品的传播。大多数HTLV-III/LAV感染是通过性传播、使用受污染的针头以及感染的母亲将病毒传给新生儿而发生的。需要持续投入研究来开发针对这种感染的HTLV-III/LAV疫苗和疗法。在此期间，需要广泛的社区努力来尽量减少传播。
