Ofoegbu Chidiebere, Chirwa Paxie W, Francis Joseph, Babalola Folarannmi D
Forest Science Postgraduate Programme, University of Pretoria, South Africa.
Institutes for Rural Development, University of Venda, South Africa.
Jamba. 2016 Jul 29;8(1):271. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v8i1.271. eCollection 2016.
Forests are vulnerable to climate change and are also major sources of livelihood for many rural households in Africa. This study examines rural people's perceptions of climate change impacts on forest-based livelihoods using rural communities of Vhembe District in South Africa as a case study. The study was based on the principles of perceived impact-based assessment, and sustainable livelihoods framework. Using the stratified proportionate random sampling procedure in combination with weighted Enumeration Area for the selected communities, 366 households were chosen and interviewed. Data analysis involved computing frequencies and conducting the Chi-square, binomial tests and binary logistic regression analysis. The respondents identified erratic rainfall, extreme temperature, extreme drought and flooding as key climatic events in their community. But not all identified key climatic events were perceived to constitute risk to forest products and forest-based livelihood. Only extreme drought was indicated to constitute risk to availability of forest products. In addition, the binary logistic regression showed a significant difference ( < 0.05) in the perceived risk of climate change to the availability of essential forest products across the three municipalities. Hence the need for forest development initiatives that target vulnerable forest products per community as a means of enhancing resilience of forest-based livelihood to climate change impacts in rural community development in South Africa.
森林易受气候变化影响，同时也是非洲许多农村家庭的主要生计来源。本研究以南非韦姆贝区的农村社区为案例，考察农村居民对气候变化对依赖森林的生计影响的认知。该研究基于感知影响评估原则和可持续生计框架。采用分层比例随机抽样程序，并结合所选社区的加权枚举区域，选取了366户家庭进行访谈。数据分析包括计算频率以及进行卡方检验、二项式检验和二元逻辑回归分析。受访者将降雨不稳定、极端温度、极端干旱和洪水确定为其所在社区的关键气候事件。但并非所有确定的关键气候事件都被认为会对森林产品和依赖森林的生计构成风险。只有极端干旱被指出会对森林产品的供应构成风险。此外，二元逻辑回归显示，在三个市中，气候变化对基本森林产品供应的感知风险存在显著差异（<0.05）。因此，有必要针对每个社区的脆弱森林产品开展森林发展倡议，以此作为增强农村社区依赖森林的生计对气候变化影响的适应力的一种手段，以促进南非农村社区发展。
