Department of Biology, California State University at Fresno, Fresno, California, United States of America.
Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2018 Jun 29;13(6):e0199844. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199844. eCollection 2018.
Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.
脆弱性评估综合了物种或自然群落对当前和未来威胁的暴露、敏感性和适应能力的定量和定性评估。当与物种的经济、生态或进化价值相结合时，脆弱性评估量化了区域物种和自然群落的相对风险，并能够为保护工作提供明智的优先排序。脆弱性评估在保护生物学中是常见的做法，包括未来气候情景的潜在影响。然而，情景和脆弱性的地理差异很少被量化。鉴于保护实践通常因社会政治边界而不是生态边界而异，这一差距对于生态系统管理来说尤其具有局限性。为了支持在一系列空间尺度上优先考虑保护行动，我们根据未来气候变化和土地利用实践的当前和未来威胁，对墨西哥湾周围的四个自然群落和十一种重点物种进行了海湾海岸脆弱性评估 (GCVA)，时间跨度至 2060 年。我们使用标准化脆弱性和价值指数 (SIVVA) 工具来评估自然群落和物种的脆弱性。我们观察到，在美国海湾海岸的生态划定亚区域内，脆弱性的变化大于气候情景之间的变化。这一新颖的发现表明，未来的脆弱性评估需要纳入区域变化，而保护的优先排序可能因生态亚区而异。在亚区和气候情景中，最突出的威胁是遗留效应，主要来自栖息地的丧失和退化，这损害了物种和自然群落的适应能力。第二大威胁是未来海平面上升的威胁。我们的研究结果表明，如果不是由于历史上的栖息地丧失、破碎化和退化，物种和自然群落面临的来自气候变化和海平面上升的巨大威胁将在其适应能力范围内。
