Gao Zi-Wen, Xu Yue, Yi Ru-Han
School of Environment, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Environmental Exposure and Health, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2018 Apr 8;39(4):1628-1636. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.201708154.
A level Ⅳ multimedia fugacity model was established to simulate the fate of -DDT and -HCH in special climatic conditions, such as in the high temperature and humidity environment of the Pearl River Delta, China. The law of migration and transformation of -DDT and -HCH were approached by the Ⅳ multimedia fugacity model, corrected for time and temperature change during 1952-2030. The simulation results showed a better response of the variation of pollutant concentrations to the changes in the pesticide application policy; the concentrations of these two targets in air, water, soil, and sediment were found continuing to increase with the growth of application rates, and decreased with the prohibition in the use of pesticide. We predicted that concentrations will decrease to 6.1×10, 3.2×10, 6.07×10, and 8.72×10 mol·m for '-DDT, and to 3.37×10, 1.14×10, 1.21×10, and 4.18×10 mol·m for -HCH, in air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively, by 2030. The output values of the Ⅳ multimedia fugacity model corrected by designating temperature as a variable parameter, was closer to the survey results than the simulation results obtained by using the model with a constant temperature parameter. The results also showed the pattern of organochlorine pesticides transformation in the whole environmental media in the study area as follow:the pollutants transferred from air to soil, air to water, soil to water, and from water to sediment, and were lastly stored in the soil and sediment. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that the emission rate, degradation rate, temperature, and lg had significant influences on the concentrations of -DDT and -HCH in all the above-mentioned environmental medias. Uncertainty analysis showed that changes in the whole parameter sets had great impact on air concentrations. There were seasonal variations in the distribution of organochlorine pesticide concentrations, and temperature change had influence on its partition in the environment.
建立了一个四级多媒体逸度模型，以模拟滴滴涕和六氯环己烷在特殊气候条件下的归宿，例如在中国珠江三角洲高温高湿的环境中。通过四级多媒体逸度模型探讨了滴滴涕和六氯环己烷的迁移转化规律，该模型针对1952 - 2030年期间的时间和温度变化进行了校正。模拟结果表明，污染物浓度变化对农药施用政策变化的响应较好；这两种目标污染物在空气、水、土壤和沉积物中的浓度随着施用量的增加而持续上升，并随着农药使用的禁止而下降。我们预测，到2030年，在空气、水、土壤和沉积物中，滴滴涕的浓度将分别降至6.1×10、3.2×10、6.07×10和8.72×10 mol·m，六氯环己烷的浓度将分别降至3.37×10、1.14×10、1.21×10和4.18×10 mol·m。将温度指定为可变参数校正后的四级多媒体逸度模型的输出值比使用恒温参数模型获得的模拟结果更接近调查结果。结果还表明，研究区域内整个环境介质中有机氯农药的转化模式如下：污染物从空气转移到土壤、从空气转移到水、从土壤转移到水、从水转移到沉积物，最后储存在土壤和沉积物中。敏感性分析结果表明，排放率、降解率、温度和lg对上述所有环境介质中滴滴涕和六氯环己烷的浓度有显著影响。不确定性分析表明，整个参数集的变化对空气浓度有很大影响。有机氯农药浓度分布存在季节性变化，温度变化对其在环境中的分配有影响。
