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基于分位数回归的洱海藻类叶绿素a对氮、磷和水温的响应特征

[Response Characteristics of Algal Chlorophyll-a to Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Water Temperature in Lake Erhai Based on Quantile Regression].

作者信息

Chen Xiao-Hua, Li Xiao-Ping, Qian Xiao-Yong, Hu Shuang-Qing

机构信息

Shanghai Academy of Environmental Science, Shanghai 200233, China.

State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2017 Jan 8;38(1):113-120. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.201607041.

DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.201607041
PMID:29965037
Abstract

Based on water quality monitoring data of Lake Erhai from 1990 to 2013,the yearly and seasonally response characteristics of algal chlorophyll-a to total nitrogen (TN),total phosphorus (TP) and water temperature was investigated using quantile regression method.It indicated that water temperature was always the primary limiting factor of algal biomass indicated by chlorophyll a (Chl-a) across recent 24 years,but its limiting effect on algal Chl-a content was kept descending sharply and replaced much by nutrients (e.g.P,N) with the increasing eutrophic level.Especially the slope values of TP on Chl-a were kept ascending from -0.3 to 0.8.Since 2002,the positive effect of TN on Chl-a presented slow descending tendency,and P became the most important limiting nutrient factor of algal growth.According to the seasonal variation analysis,water temperature and N had dominant effects on algal Chl-a in spring and autumn,but they were replaced by P in the case of Chl-a>8 mg·m in spring.In summer,N and P had strong interactive impacts on the algal growth,and the positive effect of P was stronger than that of N in the case of Chl-a>3 mg·m.In winter,algal biomass was co-limited by temperature and P.It suggested that P reduction is the prior choice of eutrophication control of Lake Erhai,and simultaneously reducing N load is necessary in the background of global warming.In addition,so far a emergency controlling measure should be taken to monitor algal blooming due to sharp ascending of water temperature within a few days in spring and autumn.

摘要

基于1990 - 2013年洱海水质监测数据,采用分位数回归方法研究了藻类叶绿素a对总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)和水温的年际及季节响应特征。结果表明,水温一直是近24年来叶绿素a(Chl-a)所指示的藻类生物量的主要限制因素,但其对藻类Chl-a含量的限制作用急剧下降,随着富营养化程度的增加,逐渐被营养物质(如磷、氮)所取代。特别是TP对Chl-a的斜率值从-0.3持续上升至0.8。2002年以来,TN对Chl-a的正向作用呈缓慢下降趋势,磷成为藻类生长最重要的限制营养因子。根据季节变化分析,水温与氮在春季和秋季对藻类Chl-a起主导作用,但在春季Chl-a>8mg·m时被磷取代。夏季,氮和磷对藻类生长有强烈的交互影响,在Chl-a>3mg·m时磷的正向作用强于氮。冬季,藻类生物量受温度和磷的共同限制。这表明,减少磷排放是洱海富营养化控制的优先选择,同时在全球变暖背景下减少氮负荷也很有必要。此外,目前应采取应急控制措施,以监测春秋季水温在数天内急剧上升导致的藻类水华现象。

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