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在中国男男性行为者中进行 HIV 预防用药的流行病学影响和成本效益建模。

Modelling the Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of PrEP for HIV Transmission in MSM in China.

机构信息

Research Centre for Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia.

出版信息

AIDS Behav. 2019 Feb;23(2):523-533. doi: 10.1007/s10461-018-2205-3.


DOI:10.1007/s10461-018-2205-3
PMID:29971734
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6318074/
Abstract

Risk of HIV infection is high in Chinese MSM, with an annual HIV incidence ranging from 3.41 to 13.7/100 person-years. Tenofovir-based PrEP is effective in preventing HIV transmission in MSM. This study evaluates the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing PrEP in Chinese MSM over the next two decades. A compartmental model for HIV was used to forecast the impact of PrEP on number of infections, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. We also provide an estimate of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost per DALY averted of the intervention. Without PrEP, there will be 1.1-3.0 million new infections and 0.7-2.3 million HIV-related deaths in the next two decades. Moderate PrEP coverage (50%) would prevent 0.17-0.32 million new HIV infections. At Truvada's current price in China, daily oral PrEP costs $46,813-52,008 per DALY averted and is not cost-effective; on-demand Truvada reduces ICER to $25,057-27,838 per DALY averted, marginally cost-effective; daily generic tenofovir-based regimens further reduce ICER to $3675-8963, wholly cost-effective. The cost of daily oral Truvada PrEP regimen would need to be reduced by half to achieve cost-effectiveness and realize the public health good of preventing hundreds of thousands of HIV infections among MSM in China.

摘要

中国男男性行为者(MSM)中的 HIV 感染风险较高,年 HIV 发病率在 3.41 至 13.7/100 人年之间。基于替诺福韦的 PrEP 可有效预防 MSM 中的 HIV 传播。本研究评估了在未来二十年中在 MSM 中实施 PrEP 的流行病学影响和成本效益。使用 HIV compartmental 模型来预测 PrEP 对感染人数、死亡人数和避免的残疾调整生命年(DALY)的影响。我们还提供了干预措施的增量成本效益比(ICER)和避免每 DALY 的增量成本的估计值。如果不使用 PrEP,在未来二十年中,将有 110-300 万例新的 HIV 感染和 70-230 万例与 HIV 相关的死亡。适度的 PrEP 覆盖率(50%)将预防 0.17-0.32 万例新的 HIV 感染。在中国,特鲁瓦达目前的价格下,每日口服 PrEP 每避免一个 DALY 的成本为 46813-52008 美元,不具有成本效益;按需特鲁瓦达将 ICER 降低至每避免一个 DALY 25057-27838 美元,略有成本效益;每日通用替诺福韦方案进一步将 ICER 降低至 3675-8963 美元,具有完全成本效益。每日口服特鲁瓦达 PrEP 方案的成本需要降低一半才能实现成本效益,并实现预防中国数十万 MSM 感染 HIV 的公共卫生效益。

相似文献

[1]
Modelling the Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of PrEP for HIV Transmission in MSM in China.

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[2]
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[7]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Understanding the cost-utility of implementing HIV self-testing with digital-based supports.

Front Public Health. 2025-1-14

[2]
Preference for HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Access Among Men who Have Sex With Men in China: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2025-1-9

[3]
Economic evaluation of short message service intervention for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in China: a modelling study.

BMC Public Health. 2024-12-20

[4]
Examining the Effects of PrEP Use on Sexual Behaviors and Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Chinese Men who have Sex with Men: A Cross-Sectional Study.

AIDS Behav. 2024-9

[5]
Engagement Along the PrEP Care Continuum Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

AIDS Behav. 2024-10

[6]
New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model.

BMC Public Health. 2024-5-14

[7]
Significant insights from a National survey in China: PrEP awareness, willingness, uptake, and adherence among YMSM students.

BMC Public Health. 2024-4-11

[8]
Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

J Int AIDS Soc. 2023-7

[9]
Willingness to use and intention to adhere to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men in Jiangsu Province, China.

AIDS Care. 2023-9

[10]
The risk of acute and early HIV (AEH) infection among MSM with different behaviour trajectories: an open cohort study in Tianjin, China, 2011-2019.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-1-20

本文引用的文献

[1]
Prevalence of actual uptake and willingness to use pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men in Hong Kong, China.

PLoS One. 2018-2-12

[2]
Why I Quit Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP)? A Mixed-Method Study Exploring Reasons for PrEP Discontinuation and Potential Re-initiation Among Gay and Bisexual Men.

AIDS Behav. 2018-11

[3]
Temporal Fluctuations in Behavior, Perceived HIV Risk, and Willingness to Use Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP).

Arch Sex Behav. 2018-1-11

[4]
Neisseria gonorrhoeae Transmission Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Anatomical Site-Specific Mathematical Model Evaluating the Potential Preventive Impact of Mouthwash.

Sex Transm Dis. 2017-10

[5]
Interest in Long-Acting Injectable PrEP in a Cohort of Men Who have Sex with Men in China.

AIDS Behav. 2018-4

[6]
The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Combined with HIV Vaccines in the United States.

Vaccines (Basel). 2017-5-24

[7]
Testing for HIV/STIs in China: Challenges, Opportunities, and Innovations.

Biomed Res Int. 2017

[8]
PrEP for key populations in combination HIV prevention in Nairobi: a mathematical modelling study.

Lancet HIV. 2017-2-21

[9]
Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in the Netherlands: a mathematical modelling study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2016-9-22

[10]
Optimizing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation among men who have sex with men in a large urban centre: a dynamic modelling study.

J Int AIDS Soc. 2016-9-23

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