Index serum hyaluronic acid independently and accurately predicts mortality in patients with liver disease.

BACKGROUND

Hyaluronic acid is a recognised noninvasive marker of liver fibrosis. However, its prognostic ability has not been extensively studied.

AIMS

To investigate the ability of an index serum hyaluronic acid measurement to independently predict transplant-free survival in patients with liver disease of varying aetiology and severity.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-centre cohort study. Serum hyaluronic acid was measured at the discretion of the attending clinicians, in patients attending the liver clinic, to assess disease severity. Patients with a hyaluronic acid measurement between 1995 and 2010 were identified. Patient characteristics at the point of hyaluronic acid measurement were recorded from medical records. Follow-up was from date of index hyaluronic acid measurement to date of death, date of transplant or censor date (July 01, 2015). Primary outcomes were all-cause and liver-related mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare survival in 3 patient groups with hyaluronic acid levels of <100 μg/L, 100-300 μg/L and >300 μg/L. Survival models were constructed using Cox proportional hazard and prediction accuracy was assessed by Harrell's C-statistic.

RESULTS

Five hundred and eighty nine patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 5.6 years (range 0.1-19.7). Transplant-free survival was significantly different between patients with hyaluronic acid <100 μg/L, 100-300 μg/L and >300 μg/L for liver-related as well as all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Hyaluronic acid level was an independent predictor of survival (liver-related: HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.20-1.60, P < 0.001; all-cause: HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, P = 0.001). The liver-related prediction accuracy of hyaluronic acid was 0.74 (Standard error 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Index hyaluronic acid measurement can accurately and independently predict liver-related and all-cause mortality in patients with liver disease.