U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C, Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA.
Cherokee Nation Technologies, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C, Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA.
Sci Rep. 2018 Jul 5;8(1):10193. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-28468-w.
Invasive reptilian predators can have substantial impacts on native species and ecosystems. Tegu lizards are widely distributed in South America east of the Andes, and are popular in the international live animal trade. Two species are established in Florida (U.S.A.) - Salvator merianae (Argentine black and white tegu) and Tupinambis teguixin sensu lato (gold tegu) - and a third has been recorded there- S. rufescens (red tegu). We built species distribution models (SDMs) using 5 approaches (logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy) based on data from the native ranges. We then projected these models to North America to develop hypotheses for potential tegu distributions. Our results suggest that much of the southern United States and northern México probably contains suitable habitat for one or more of these tegu species. Salvator rufescens had higher habitat suitability in semi-arid areas, whereas S. merianae and T. teguixin had higher habitat suitability in more mesic areas. We propose that Florida is not the only state where these taxa could become established, and that early detection and rapid response programs targeting tegu lizards in potentially suitable habitat elsewhere in North America could help prevent establishment and abate negative impacts on native ecosystems.
入侵的爬行动物捕食者会对本地物种和生态系统造成重大影响。巨蜥在安第斯山脉以东的南美洲广泛分布，在国际活体动物贸易中很受欢迎。有两个物种在佛罗里达州（美国）定居，即萨尔瓦多·梅里安（阿根廷黑白巨蜥）和图皮纳姆比·特古欣（广义的金巨蜥），还有第三个物种也在那里被记录到，即 S. rufescens（红巨蜥）。我们使用 5 种方法（逻辑回归、多元自适应回归样条、增强回归树、随机森林和最大熵）构建了物种分布模型（SDM），这些方法的数据来自于它们的原生范围。然后，我们将这些模型投射到北美，以对这些巨蜥潜在分布进行假设。我们的结果表明，美国南部和墨西哥北部的大部分地区可能都有适合这些巨蜥物种之一或多种的栖息地。萨尔瓦多·鲁菲斯森斯在半干旱地区的栖息地适宜性较高，而萨尔瓦多·梅里安和图皮纳姆比·特古欣在更湿润的地区的栖息地适宜性较高。我们提出，佛罗里达州并不是这些巨蜥可能建立种群的唯一州，在北美的其他潜在适宜栖息地中，针对巨蜥的早期发现和快速反应计划可能有助于防止它们的建立，并减轻对本地生态系统的负面影响。
