Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Nat Commun. 2018 Jul 12;9(1):2687. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0.
Tidal marshes rank among Earth's vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes' ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040.
潮汐沼泽是地球上脆弱的生态系统之一，如果未来的海平面相对上升率 (RSLR) 超过沼泽垂直堆积的能力，它们将会退缩。在这里，我们通过分析英国超过 780 个全新世潮汐沼泽演化的重建来评估沼泽脆弱性的极限。这些重建包括海侵（潮汐沼泽后退）和海退（潮汐沼泽扩张）接触。沼泽后退的可能性取决于全新世 RSLR 速率，范围在-7.7 至 15.2mm/yr 之间。全新世记录表明，当 RSLR 速率≥7.1mm/yr 时，沼泽后退的可能性是扩张的九倍。将估计的沼泽后退概率与未来 RSLR 的预测相结合表明，在二十一世纪，潮汐沼泽的损失存在重大风险。根据代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 8.5，到 2100 年，英国所有地区都有超过 80%的可能性发生沼泽后退，英格兰南部和东部地区到 2040 年就会达到这一可能性。
