Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask. S4S 7H9, Canada.
Environ Res. 2018 Nov;167:98-114. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.07.001. Epub 2018 Jul 5.
In this study, a multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming (MTIP) method is developed, which extends upon the existing multistage stochastic programming (MSP) by allowing uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions, interval values and type-2 fuzzy sets to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Through coupling air quality index (AQI) with MTIP, an AQI-MTIP model is formulated for energy and environmental systems (EES) management of Tianjin. A number of scenarios based on changed AQIs are examined to analyze the impacts of environmental requirements on the city's energy system. Results indicate that (i) with the improvement of environmental requirement, utilization of clean energies (especially natural gas) is provoked markedly; (ii) PM is the primary pollutant, 64.50% of which should be reduced each period to maintain the city's air quality at a health-safe level. These findings can help decision makers adjust energy structure, make effective mitigation strategy, and gain deep insight into the relationship between energy consumption and environmental requirement.
在本研究中，开发了一种多阶段类型 2 模糊区间随机规划 (MTIP) 方法，该方法通过允许不确定性以概率分布、区间值和类型 2 模糊集的形式表示，将其有效地纳入优化框架中，对现有的多阶段随机规划 (MSP) 进行了扩展。通过将空气质量指数 (AQI) 与 MTIP 相结合，为天津的能源和环境系统 (EES) 管理制定了一个 AQI-MTIP 模型。根据 AQI 的变化，研究了多个情景，以分析环境要求对城市能源系统的影响。结果表明：(i)随着环境要求的提高，清洁能源（特别是天然气）的利用显著增加；(ii) PM 是主要污染物，每个时期应减少 64.50%，以保持城市空气质量处于健康安全水平。这些发现可以帮助决策者调整能源结构，制定有效的缓解策略，并深入了解能源消耗与环境要求之间的关系。
