University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Italy.
University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 1;628-629:919-937. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.131. Epub 2018 Feb 20.
There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.
高度确信人为增加大气温室气体（GHG）正在导致地球气候发生变化。河口、海湾和泻湖等沿海水体是受正在发生的气候变化影响最大的水体之一。由于位于陆海交界处，这些水体受到大气、上游陆地和沿海水域物理化学过程变化的共同影响。特别是，气候变化预计将通过改变其环境驱动因素（特别是与气候相关的因素）来改变浮游植物群落，从而加剧富营养化事件的症状，如缺氧、有害藻华（HAB）和栖息地丧失。因此，更好地了解与气候相关的驱动因素与浮游植物之间的联系，对于预测气候变化对水生生态系统的影响是必要的。在这里，我们以意大利 Zero 河流域为例，该流域是向属于威尼斯泻湖的沿海水体 Palude di Cona 输送淡水和营养物质的主要来源之一。为了预测气候变化对淡水输入、营养负荷及其对受纳水体浮游植物群落影响的影响，我们制定并应用了一种综合建模方法，该方法由以下部分组成：根据替代排放情景，通过耦合一个通用环流模型（GCM）和一个区域气候模型（RCM）得出的气候模拟、水文模型 Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT）和生态模型 AQUATOX。气候预测指出，冬季降水增加，夏季减少，而全年温度显著升高。SWAT 模拟的水排放量和营养负荷显示出冬季（夏季）增加（减少）的趋势。AQUATOX 预测了盐沼 Palude di Cona 中营养物质浓度的变化，以及浮游植物群落生物量和物种的变化。
