From the Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA.
Epidemiology. 2018 Nov;29(6):895-903. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000907.
The tree-based scan statistic is a statistical data mining tool that has been used for signal detection with a self-controlled design in vaccine safety studies. This disproportionality statistic adjusts for multiple testing in evaluation of thousands of potential adverse events. However, many drug safety questions are not well suited for self-controlled analysis. We propose a method that combines tree-based scan statistics with propensity score-matched analysis of new initiator cohorts, a robust design for investigations of drug safety. We conducted plasmode simulations to evaluate performance. In multiple realistic scenarios, tree-based scan statistics in cohorts that were propensity score matched to adjust for confounding outperformed tree-based scan statistics in unmatched cohorts. In scenarios where confounding moved point estimates away from the null, adjusted analyses recovered the prespecified type 1 error while unadjusted analyses inflated type 1 error. In scenarios where confounding moved point estimates toward the null, adjusted analyses preserved power, whereas unadjusted analyses greatly reduced power. Although complete adjustment of true confounders had the best performance, matching on a moderately mis-specified propensity score substantially improved type 1 error and power compared with no adjustment. When there was true elevation in risk of an adverse event, there were often co-occurring signals for clinically related concepts. TreeScan with propensity score matching shows promise as a method for screening and prioritization of potential adverse events. It should be followed by clinical review and safety studies specifically designed to quantify the magnitude of effect, with confounding control targeted to the outcome of interest.
基于树的扫描统计是一种统计数据挖掘工具,已被用于疫苗安全性研究中的自我对照设计中的信号检测。该不均衡统计量在评估数千种潜在不良事件时进行了多次测试调整。然而,许多药物安全性问题并不适合自我对照分析。我们提出了一种将基于树的扫描统计与新启动队列倾向评分匹配分析相结合的方法,这是一种用于药物安全性研究的稳健设计。我们进行了 plasmode 模拟来评估性能。在多个现实场景中,与倾向评分匹配以调整混杂因素的队列中的基于树的扫描统计量在未匹配队列中的表现优于基于树的扫描统计量。在混杂因素使点估计偏离零的情况下,调整后的分析恢复了预定的第一类错误,而未调整的分析则导致了第一类错误的膨胀。在混杂因素使点估计向零移动的情况下,调整后的分析保留了功效,而未调整的分析则大大降低了功效。虽然对真实混杂因素的完全调整表现最好,但与没有调整相比,在适度指定的倾向评分上进行匹配可以显著提高第一类错误和功效。当不良事件的风险确实升高时,通常会出现与临床相关概念同时发生的信号。基于树的扫描和倾向评分匹配显示出作为筛选和优先考虑潜在不良事件的方法的前景。应该通过专门设计的临床审查和安全性研究来跟进,以定量评估效应的大小,并针对感兴趣的结果进行混杂因素控制。