[云南省德宏州基于CD4(+)T淋巴细胞水平及感染时间模型的HIV诊断率估算]

[Estimation of HIV diagnosis rate with CD4(+) T-lymphocyte level and infected-time model in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province].

作者信息

Li A H, Jiang Z, Duan S, Zhao Y, Wu Z Y

机构信息

National Center for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome/Sexually Transmitted Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Aug 6;52(8):833-836. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.08.011.

DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.08.011

PMID:30107718

Abstract

To estimate the total number of people infected with HIV and to calculate the diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Through the comprehensive AIDS prevention and treatment information system, we collected and analyzed the relevant information of the new diagnosis report of HIV in Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province in 2006-2015, mainly including age, sex, infected transmission, CD4(+) T-lymphocyte counts, diagnostic time and so on. The content of the study was to establish a model method for estimating the diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong. First, used the first CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count after HIV diagnosis to estimate the date of infection. Then based on the estimated time from HIV infection to diagnosis we can estimate the diagnosis delay distribution which in turn can be used to account for individuals infected but not yet diagnosed and thus estimated the total number of HIV infections (diagnosed and undiagnosed). Finally, the number of new infections in each year was added to estimate the total number of infected people, and the number of people who had been diagnosed was divided by the total number of infected persons to obtain the proportion of HIV diagnosis rate. There were 8 215 reported cases in Dehong from 2006 to 2015, of which 1 297 cases were reported in 2007 (15. 8%) and 361 cases (4.4%) in 2015. The diagnosis rate of newly infected persons were 88% in 2005 and before. And from 2006 to 2015, the diagnosis rate of newly infected persons were 75%, 71%, 68%, 66%, 61%, 58%, 53%, 45%, 40% and 33%, respectively. The total number of newly infected persons in 2005 and before was 11 197 cases. The annual new infected number from 2006 to 2015 was 653, 671, 723, 640, 509, 468, 369, 375, 285 and 224 cases. The total number of people infected with HIV in Dehong was 16 114 cases, and the diagnosis rate was 87.7%. The diagnosis rate of HIV in Dehong was at a high level. Since 2008, the annual number of new infections in Dehong has been declining.

摘要

估算云南省德宏州艾滋病毒（HIV）感染总人数并计算HIV诊断率。通过艾滋病综合防治信息系统，收集并分析了云南省德宏州2006 - 2015年HIV新诊断报告的相关信息，主要包括年龄、性别、感染传播途径、CD4(+) T淋巴细胞计数、诊断时间等。本研究内容是建立一种估算德宏州HIV诊断率的模型方法。首先，利用HIV诊断后首次CD4(+) T淋巴细胞计数估算感染日期。然后基于估算的从HIV感染到诊断的时间，我们可以估算诊断延迟分布，进而可用于统计已感染但尚未诊断的个体数量，从而估算出HIV感染总人数（已诊断和未诊断的）。最后，将每年新感染人数相加估算出感染总人数，并将已诊断人数除以感染总人数得到HIV诊断率的比例。2006年至2015年德宏州报告病例8215例，其中2007年报告1297例（15.8%），2015年报告361例（4.4%）。2005年及以前新感染人群的诊断率为88%。2006年至2015年，新感染人群的诊断率分别为75%、71%、68%、66%、61%、58%、53%、45%、40%和33%。2005年及以前新感染总人数为11197例。2006年至2015年每年新感染人数分别为653例、671例、723例、640例、509例、468例、369例、375例、285例和224例。德宏州HIV感染总人数为16114例，诊断率为87.7%。德宏州HIV诊断率处于较高水平。自2008年以来，德宏州每年新感染人数呈下降趋势。