Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany.
Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, Hull, HU6 7RX, United Kingdom.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jan 15;648:293-305. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.168. Epub 2018 Aug 13.
Marine policy and management has to cope with a plethora of human activities that cause pressures leading to changes to the natural and human systems. Accordingly, it requires many policy and management responses to address traditional, cultural, social, ecological, technical, and economic policy objectives. Because of this, we advocate that a fully-structured approach using the IEC/ISO 31010 Bow-tie analysis will allow all elements to be integrated for a cost-effective system. This industry-standard system, described here with examples for the marine environment, will fulfil many of the demands by the users and uses of the marine system and the regulators of those users and uses. It allows for bridging several aspects: the management and environmental sciences, the management complexity and governance demands, the natural and social sciences and socio-economics and outcomes. Most importantly, the use of the Bow-tie approach bridges systems analysis and ecosystem complexity. At a time when scientific decisions in policy making and implementation are under question, we conclude that it provides a rigorous, transparent and defendable system of decision-making.
海洋政策和管理必须应对众多人类活动，这些活动会造成压力，导致自然和人类系统发生变化。因此，它需要许多政策和管理措施来解决传统的、文化的、社会的、生态的、技术的和经济的政策目标。有鉴于此，我们主张采用经过充分结构化的 IEC/ISO 31010 蝴蝶结分析法来整合所有要素，以建立一个具有成本效益的系统。本文以海洋环境为例，对这一工业标准系统进行了描述，它将满足海洋系统的使用者和使用者的管理者以及监管者的许多需求和用途。它允许跨越几个方面：管理和环境科学、管理复杂性和治理需求、自然和社会科学以及社会经济学和成果。最重要的是，蝴蝶结分析法的使用跨越了系统分析和生态系统的复杂性。在政策制定和实施中的科学决策受到质疑的时候，我们得出结论，它提供了一个严格、透明和可辩护的决策系统。
