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[五种干旱指数在中国吉林省农业干旱评估中的适用性]

[Applicability of five drought indices for agricultural drought evaluation in Jilin Province, China.].

作者信息

Mu Jia, Qiu Mei Juan, Gu Yu, Ren Jing Quan, Liu Yang

机构信息

Jilin Meteorological Science Institute, Changchun 130062, China.

Ji'an Meteorological Administration, Ji'an 134200, Jilin, China.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2018 Aug;29(8):2624-2632. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201808.014.

Abstract

Drought is a severe meteorological disaster on agriculture in Jilin Province. Agricultural drought can be represented by drought indices, but there is no universal applicable index. It is of great significance to examine the applicability of drought indices for agricultural drought evaluation. Based on daily meteorological data, soil moisture data, and drought statistical information from 1961 to 2014, we selected typical drought years and typical drought zones. The applicability of five drought indices was evaluated, including precipitation anomaly percentage (PA), relative moisture index (MI), crop water deficit anomaly index (CWDIa), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI). The results showed that agricultural drought evaluation of MI was consistent best with drought information for two typical drought years of 1997 and 2007, followed by PA and MCI. For typical drought zones (Tongyu in the west, Lishu in the center and Helong in the east), MI and PDSI performed much better than other ones. During growing season, PA was more applicable in April, July and August, MI was applicable to April, May and September, CWDIa only performed well in May, PDSI could be an indicator to agricultural drought in June, July, August and September, MCI was useful in May, June, July and August. For different regions with agricultural drought, MI, PDSI and MCI were applicable in western region, PDSI in central region, and PA, PDSI and MCI were suitable for eastern region.

摘要

干旱是吉林省农业面临的一种严重气象灾害。农业干旱可用干旱指数来表征,但尚无普遍适用的指数。考察干旱指数在农业干旱评估中的适用性具有重要意义。基于1961—2014年的逐日气象数据、土壤湿度数据及干旱统计资料,选取典型干旱年份和典型干旱区域,对降水距平百分率(PA)、相对湿润指数(MI)、作物水分亏缺异常指数(CWDIa)、帕尔默干旱强度指数(PDSI)和气象干旱综合指数(MCI)5种干旱指数的适用性进行评估。结果表明,MI对1997年和2007年两个典型干旱年份的农业干旱评估与干旱信息一致性最好,其次是PA和MCI。对于典型干旱区域(西部通榆、中部梨树、东部和龙),MI和PDSI表现优于其他指数。在作物生长季,PA在4月、7月和8月适用性较好,MI适用于4月、5月和9月,CWDIa仅在5月表现良好,PDSI可作为6月、7月、8月和9月农业干旱的指标,MCI在5月、6月、7月和8月较为适用。对于不同的农业干旱区域,MI、PDSI和MCI适用于西部地区,PDSI适用于中部地区,PA、PDSI和MCI适用于东部地区。

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