Johansson Daniel J A, Lucas Paul L, Weitzel Matthias, Ahlgren Erik O, Bazaz A B, Chen Wenying, den Elzen Michel G J, Ghosh Joydeep, Grahn Maria, Liang Qiao-Mei, Peterson Sonja, Pradhan Basanta K, van Ruijven Bas J, Shukla P R, van Vuuren Detlef P, Wei Yi-Ming
Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden.
PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. 2015;20(8):1335-1359. doi: 10.1007/s11027-014-9549-4. Epub 2014 Feb 28.
This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010-2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.
本文对将全球气候变化稳定在比工业化前水平高约2摄氏度的情况下，如何影响中国和印度的经济与能源系统发展进行了建模比较。七个全球或国家层面的一般均衡（CGE）模型和能源系统模型在人口和经济假设方面进行了软链接和协调。我们基于人均二氧化碳（CO）排放量的长期趋同，从《哥本哈根协议》提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的排放承诺出发，并允许各国之间进行全面排放交易，模拟了一种气候情景。在这种气候情景下，由于人均趋同规则以及印度较高的人口增长率，印度的排放配额增长幅度将超过中国。经济和能源方面的影响不仅在两国之间存在差异，而且在不同模型类型之间也有所不同。在CGE模型中，降低能源强度是最重要的减排方法，而在能源系统模型中，降低碳强度最为重要。碳强度的降低主要通过部署碳捕获与封存、可再生能源和核能来实现。由于中国在2010年至2050年期间的累计减排量较高，且印度可以通过国际排放交易抵消更多的减排成本，因此中国的经济影响总体上高于印度。
