澳大利亚东南部降雨与布鲁里溃疡的关系。
The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.
机构信息
University of Melbourne, Department of Medicine, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia.
Department of Medicine and Infectious Diseases, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
出版信息
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Sep 17;12(9):e0006757. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757. eCollection 2018 Sep.
BACKGROUND
Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas.
METHODOLOGY
We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation.
CONCLUSIONS
Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.
背景
澳大利亚东南部的伯利溃疡发病率一直在上升，但传播机制尚不清楚。我们旨在调查维多利亚州两个流行地区（贝拉里恩和莫宁顿半岛）的降雨与病例数之间的联系。
方法
我们根据流行地区创建了每年和每月的图表，比较了 2004 年至 2016 年期间的降雨量与当地伯利溃疡的发病率，并考虑了 0-24 个月的一系列时间滞后间隔，以调查相关模式。
结论
贝拉里恩半岛的最佳正相关发生在 12 个月前的降雨滞后，但在莫宁顿半岛，任何时间滞后都没有观察到显著相关性。这些结果提供了进一步探索可能在这些地理位置相近的流行地区有所不同的传播机制的证据更新。
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