State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Oct 16;115(42):10600-10605. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1802129115. Epub 2018 Oct 1.
We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and "intensity-loss rate" function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
我们根据标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和帕尔默干旱严重指数（PDSI）、聚类分析方法以及“强度-损失率”函数，预测了全球气温分别升高 1.5°C 和 2.0°C 时中国的干旱损失。与早期研究不同，为了预测干旱损失，我们预测了共享社会经济路径下的区域国内生产总值，而不是使用静态社会经济情景。我们发现，在工业化前水平之上，与 1986-2005 年参考期相比，在 2020-2039 年和 2040-2059 年，全球分别升温 1.5°C 和 2.0°C 时，降水和蒸散量呈增加趋势。随着干旱强度和覆盖范围在中国各地的增加，干旱损失将飙升。与 1986-2005 年参考期相比，在 1.5°C 升温水平下可持续发展路径的估计损失增加了 10 倍，与 2006-2015 年相比，几乎增加了两倍。然而，将温度升高限制在 1.5°C 可以使中国每年的干旱损失减少数十亿美元，与 2.0°C 的升温相比。
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