Modelling demographic impacts of a growing Arctic fishery on a seabird population in Canada and Greenland.

In Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, reports indicate that Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) are vulnerable to bycatch in the fisheries for Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). We modeled the potential current and future impacts the expanding halibut fishery may have on fulmar populations in the region using population viability analysis. By varying age-specific bycatch vulnerability, detectability, and the size of the at-risk population, we tested how different scenarios may influence population trajectories. From 2011 to 2015, the bycatch rate of fulmars was approximately 212 (SD ± 111) individuals per year. This could cause declines (-12%) over three generations (66 years) at the three colonies closest to the fishing grounds. However, declines could be as high as -33% over this same period if unobservable bycatch is considered, and as low as -0.4% if bycatch is distributed among a larger population. Several uncertainties we modeled could be reduced by improving how bycatch data are recorded by at-sea observer programs.