Carleton University, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Acadia University, Biology Department, Wolfville, NS, Canada.
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Wildlife Management and Regulatory Affairs, Place Vincent Massey, Gatineau, QC, Canada.
Mar Environ Res. 2018 Nov;142:80-90. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.021. Epub 2018 Sep 21.
In Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, reports indicate that Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) are vulnerable to bycatch in the fisheries for Greenland Halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). We modeled the potential current and future impacts the expanding halibut fishery may have on fulmar populations in the region using population viability analysis. By varying age-specific bycatch vulnerability, detectability, and the size of the at-risk population, we tested how different scenarios may influence population trajectories. From 2011 to 2015, the bycatch rate of fulmars was approximately 212 (SD ± 111) individuals per year. This could cause declines (-12%) over three generations (66 years) at the three colonies closest to the fishing grounds. However, declines could be as high as -33% over this same period if unobservable bycatch is considered, and as low as -0.4% if bycatch is distributed among a larger population. Several uncertainties we modeled could be reduced by improving how bycatch data are recorded by at-sea observer programs.
在巴芬湾和戴维斯海峡，有报告表明北方海雀（Fulmarus glacialis）在格陵兰比目鱼（Reinhardtius hippoglossoides）渔业中容易成为兼捕目标。我们使用种群生存力分析来模拟不断扩大的比目鱼渔业可能对该地区海雀种群产生的潜在当前和未来影响。通过改变特定年龄的兼捕脆弱性、可检测性和风险种群的规模，我们测试了不同的情景如何影响种群轨迹。2011 年至 2015 年，海雀的兼捕率约为每年 212（SD±111）只。在最接近捕鱼区的三个海雀栖息地，这可能导致三代（66 年）内种群数量下降（-12%）。然而，如果考虑到不可见的兼捕，在同一时期的下降幅度可能高达-33%，如果兼捕分布在更大的种群中，下降幅度可能低至-0.4%。我们模型中的几个不确定性可以通过改进海上观察员计划记录兼捕数据来降低。
