Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department , University of Calgary , 2500 University Drive NW , Calgary , Alberta , Canada T2N1N4.
Department of Civil Engineering , University of Toronto , 35 Saint George Street , Toronto , Ontario , Canada M5S 1A4.
Environ Sci Technol. 2018 Nov 20;52(22):13609-13618. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b04086. Epub 2018 Oct 31.
Fuel economy standards, driver behavior, and biofuel mandates are driving a decline in the Gasoline-to-Diesel ratio (G:D) in U.S. refineries. This paper investigates the GHG implications associated with two methods available to shift refinery output: 1) refinery operational changes and 2) input crude slate variation. This analysis uses an open-source refinery GHG emissions model, PRELIM. Newly developed modeling capabilities and publicly available data are used to present Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) level results (energy consumption and GHG emissions) for U.S. refineries. The results are indicative of negligible changes in the U.S. refining GHG emissions on a country level (∼3%), while variations up to 8% are observed within individual regions. Meeting the 2040 national G:D projections may require drastic changes to the current U.S. crude mix (e.g., more than 30% shift from the current U.S. crude mix), which could increase the U.S. refining GHG emissions by 25%. The analysis provides insights about future changes in refining GHG emissions due to a shift in product demand and a framework for additional analyses such as evaluation of crude market changes or biofuel blending on refining GHG emissions that can inform development of environmental regulations such as low carbon fuel standards.
燃油经济性标准、驾驶员行为和生物燃料法规要求正在降低美国炼油厂的汽油-柴油比例（G:D）。本文研究了两种改变炼油厂产品结构的方法（1）炼油厂操作变化和（2）原料原油种类变化）所带来的温室气体排放影响。本分析使用了一个开源炼油厂温室气体排放模型 PRELIM。新开发的建模功能和公开可用的数据用于展示美国炼油厂按石油管理局防御区（PADD）划分的结果（能源消耗和温室气体排放）。结果表明，美国炼油业的温室气体排放量在国家层面上几乎没有变化（∼3%），而在个别地区则观察到高达 8%的变化。要实现 2040 年的国家 G:D 预测，可能需要对当前的美国原油混合（例如，从当前的美国原油混合中转移超过 30%）进行重大改变，这可能会使美国炼油业的温室气体排放量增加 25%。该分析提供了由于产品需求变化导致炼油业温室气体排放未来变化的见解，并为进一步分析提供了框架，例如评估原油市场变化或生物燃料混合对炼油业温室气体排放的影响，从而为制定环境法规（如低碳燃料标准）提供信息。
